CME’s Bitcoin futures and options market has become heavily skewed towards short-term contracts. As of June 6, 2025, CME reported approximately $15.51 billion in total Bitcoin futures open interest (OI), with $12.42 billion—or 80%—allocated to contracts maturing in the next one to two months. An additional $2.92 billion sits in the two-to-three-month bucket, leaving only about $175 million concentrated beyond that period.

This steep front-loading has resulted in the flattest annualized basis curve seen since April. The condensed term structure suggests limited incentive for arbitrage-based carry trades. Rather than indicating aggressive bullish or bearish sentiment, the current positioning points to institutional caution—favoring near-term exposure over long-term commitments.

Options data further underscores this careful approach. Total OI in Bitcoin options stands at $89.87 million, with $69.38 million in calls and $20.47 million in puts—a call-to-put ratio of 3.4. This bias signals preference for upside protection or speculative opportunity, but the modest scale implies that leveraged directional exposure remains restrained.

Given that so much open interest (~$12.42 billion in futures and over $48 million in options) is due to expire by August, any significant price movement between now and then—especially toward the $110,000–$115,000 range—could trigger sharp, reflexive volatility. Thin liquidity in longer-term maturities may amplify these effects, as positions roll off without…